Jobless Claims Drop, Industrial Production Soars, Leading Economic Indicators Up By Andrew L. Jaffee, December 18, 2003	Home   Search   Forum   Terms

The U.S. economy continues to show strength, as it has been for months. The Labor Department announced today that new filings for unemployment fell to 353,000 in the week ended December 13. The average number of claims for the 4 weeks ended December 13 also fell. Economists consider any reading below 400,000 to be an indicator that the job market is improving. In a separate report also released today, The Conference Board, a private research group, forecast an improvement in U.S. economic conditions. The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) report every month, which tries to predict future economic conditions. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve said that U.S. industrial production jumped 0.9% in November. This was the biggest rise in four years.

This is quite a lot of good economic news to be packed into a 2-day period. Yet many people still have valid concerns about American jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics claims that 2.9 million private sector jobs have evaporated since 2001. A report from Forester Research predicts that by 2015, 3.3 million jobs in the services sector will be sent overseas or made obsolete by technology. For example, the report estimated that computer programming jobs will drop to 669,974 in 2015 from 905,370 today; telemarketing jobs will decrease to 378,750 from 461,890 today; and that financial underwriting jobs will drop to 19,319 from 23,560 today.

These are dire predictions, especially in an economy that is largely service-based. Remember that such predictions are hard -- even impossible -- to make. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the U.S. had over-exuberance during the economic bubble of 1990's. At that time, prognosticators were telling us we'd reached escape velocity and the good times would never end. Things tend to seem perfect just about when they top out. The worst seems the worst just before a recovery. While I'm not dismissing the great changes taking place in our economy -- as in manufacturing -- I'm not ready to start panicking.

Remember all the innovation this country produced in 90's? Just think of all the amazing things that average citizens can do with a PC and Internet connection. Most people hadn't even heard of the Internet in 1990. Think of all the amazing discoveries made by Americans in the country's short 227-year history. The U.S. is still the undisputed economic champion of the world. Our creative juices haven't been used up yet. Creativity and innovation are the key. Anyone can crank out Happy Meals.

But the job prognostications are certainly food for thought. Some communities are trying to adapt to the structural shifts in the U.S. economy. Hopefully, they'll succeed. Be prepared, as always, for change.