Can India and Pakistan be Friends? By Andrew L. Jaffee, January 6, 2004	Home   Search   Forum   Terms

India and Pakistan have announced they will meet next month to kiss and make up. This is great news if the two sides are serious. In 1998, the two countries played "dueling nuclear tests", taunting each other and putting the whole world at risk. In 2002, India and Pakistan came to the brink of war over Kashmir. Just last year Pakistan tested three missile prototypes all capable of delivering nuclear warheads deep into India.

Over the last few months, both sides have been talking more and more about warming their relations. According to the BBC, India and Pakistan issued a joint statement today which said:

To carry the process of normalisation forward, the president of Pakistan and the prime minister of India agreed to commence the process of a composite dialogue in February 2004.

The two leaders are confident the resumption of the composite dialogue will lead to the peaceful settlement of all bilateral issues, including Jammu and Kashmir, to the satisfaction of both sides.

Maybe they've realized the sheer insanity of a confrontation. Many pundits see a scenario like this: War starts, India's superior tactical forces overwhelm Pakistan, Pakistan pulls out the nukes, and India retaliates. I'm not choosing sides, I'm just regurgitating the military analysis. On the other hand, I am taking sides. I'm partial to India, even though she recently declined to send troops to Iraq. I'm also fully cognizant of the importance of a stable Pakistan, but more cautious about her.

India has missed a grand opportunity by refusing to join countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Lithuania, and Poland in sending troops to Iraq. However, the decision was made through the Indian political process, and we must respect that decision.

As the "the world's largest democracy," with 846 million people and a parliamentary-style government, India counts. It seems only natural that the U.S. and India build stronger ties. Why would India decline the U.S. request? Perhaps a bit of history is in order here (see condensed timeline).

It was only 56 years ago that Indians, under the leadership of Mohandas Gandhi, gained independence from British colonial rule. I would imagine that some/many Indians would harbor reservations about themselves being an "occupying" force (e.g., in Iraq), precisely because of their history with colonialism.

At the time of Indian independence, Britain divided its territories on the Indian subcontinent into a largely Muslim Pakistan and mostly Hindu India. The upheavals caused by this "partition" can be easily described as a "bloodbath". American public opinion was biased in favor of India at the time, perhaps swayed by Gandhi's non-violent principals and Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru's charisma. On the other hand, Americans felt pretty cool towards Pakistan, as it was a religious-based state. But the Cold War changed everything.

At tensions grew between the U.S. and Soviet Union, Nehru led India into the Non-Aligned Movement, and subsequently India built strong ties to the Soviet Union--what some see as strategic mistakes in hindsight. The U.S. then found a military ally against the Soviets in Pakistan. As Pakistan and India have fought three wars, India was never happy with an American/Pakistani military alliance. And then there is Kashmir.

India and Pakistan have been fighting over the mountainous region of Kashmir since 1947. In recent history, the two countries have been provoking each other, largely over Kashmir, by testing missiles and nuclear weapons. Needless to say, tensions between India and Pakistan are a valid concern for the entire planet.

I find myself in quite a dilemma in sorting through the U.S. relationship with both Pakistan and India. I am deeply troubled with the Pakistani government's support of Islamist terrorist groups. An Islamist terror group attacked the Indian Parliament in New Delhi on December 13, 2001, killing nine people. According to the Council on Foreign Relations:

The two terrorist groups that India says planned the attacks, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, are reportedly trained and equipped in the portion of Kashmir under Pakistani control.

With all its Madrasas (extremist religious schools), Islamist political parties, and probable harboring of terrorist groups like al-Qaeda (maybe even bin Laden), Pakistan scares the hell out me. Maybe U.S. support for Pakistani President Musharraf is the only thing keeping a lid on the mess that country is in? Such a contradiction: Musharraf--the military dictator--has warned the Islamists in Pakistan that they be tolerant of moderates (e.g., Sufi Muslims). Some see a silver lining in Pakistan. I hope Pakistanis can work things out without the whole country going up in flames. And then there's India.

Some say India has entered "dark days" because of its election of a Hindu/nationalist party (Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP). I wouldn't go that far, because Indians elected the BJP in the context of a long democratic tradition. Having such a huge democracy in south Asia should only be a benefit to the U.S. One would think that the U.S. and India could work out their differences. There is some evidence that they are, despite the current Indian refusal to send troops to Iraq.

Immediately after the September 11 attacks on the U.S., India offered its full support to America in the war on terror. According to UK's Telegraph:

New Delhi offered bases, promised logistical support and opened its intelligence files on Osama bin Laden's terrorist network.

India has recently forged a strategic alliance with Israel, one of the U.S.'s closest allies. And there are eloquent voices in India calling for closer ties with the U.S.

One would hope that Indians would see the great difference between the U.S.-led coalition's actions in Iraq and the British Raj. Hopefully they'll notice that the majority of Americans support the Iraq campaign, despite the fact that we're losing almost one soldier a day in an effort to stabilize the country. If anything, the U.S. is an unwilling occupier in the sense that we'd like to bring stability to the region and then get out as soon as possible.

The U.S. needs friends like India. Hopefully the two countries will forge stronger ties. Hopefully Indians will realize how they too have at stake in Iraq, and elect to fully support coalition efforts there. I'm not quite sure what to do about Pakistan. Its President, Pervez Musharraf, is a dictator, but he's an American ally. If he goes, Pakistan will probably end up under Islamist control. Nothing like being stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Whichever side you prefer, or maybe you have no preferences, peace between India and Pakistan would let the whole world rest more easily.